A Word To The Wise

HOT READS FOR THE PRACTITIONER

Title: Free Classes May Soon Cost You

Competency: Self-development, managing self

Who benefits: people in a learning mode

Consultant Usage: MOOCs are having big impacts on organizations and individuals – all consultants need to be up to speed on this changing way of learning and education.

What’s it about? The MOOCs are coming!  The MOOCs are coming!  Whoops the MOOCs are here!!!  (Massive Open Online Courses)

I have been writing about Coursera (a MOOC) for months now.  Now everyone else is too.  This past week has seen The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and PBS do feature pieces.  They are not the first nor will they be the last.  This phenomenon was almost unimaginable a year ago.  (Well, obviously a few very bright people imagined it.)

If you haven’t been following closely I would like to bring you up-to-date on some of the more important questions surrounding MOOCs

Teaser: Who had the most users in their first 4 months of existence?  Google? (nope), Twitter? (nope), Coursera? (yep)

Who are they? Below are some of the current big players on the MOOC stage:

Coursera: So far the biggest and the one that most resembles a large university.  As of this writing they have 33 major universities worldwide as partners and offer 211 courses (Free) in 20 various categories.  (Footnote: I have just completed a 13 week history class.  I liked it so much I have signed up for 11 more courses over the next 12 months.)

Udacity: Computer Science (big time), physics, statistics

Udemy: Microsoft courses, designing aps, web development (these courses range from $100 – $500)

Kahn Academy: The first MOOC, extremely popular with high school and first and second year college students.  Mostly Math but also some course in computer science, science, economics, humanities, and TEST PREP (SAT, GMAT, etc.).

edX: Small but prestigious consortium including MIT, Harvard, University of California, Berkeley and 3 others with an engineering/computer science focus but broadening quickly.  Nice quote from Professor Armando Fox, UC, Berkeley: “This is an opportunity that I think none of us ever have seen before, where … we can essentially teach the world. We had an e-mail from one student who lived in the Gaza Strip, and he was apologizing that his homeworks were always late because they only get six hours of electricity per day, and he was using some of that electricity budget to take our course. You know, as an instructor, I think there’s no higher compliment than that.”

What do they want?

Kahn Academy is strictly non-profit, funded by B & M Gates, Google, and others dedicated to bringing free education to anyone.  They currently have 3,800 short videos and accompanying practical exercises.

Coursera has a split personality.  For now it is totally free, but searching for a business model that will make all involved very, very rich.  It is likely to end up with two tiers of learning.  What they have now will remain free (more or less).  They will add new twists at a second level that will be revenue producing.

Coursera founders have made free learning a mission.  Daphne Koller: “I think by opening up education for free to everyone around the world, we’re going to turn education, high-quality education, from a privilege to a basic human right, so that anyone, no matter their social, economic or family circumstances, has access to the best education.  Andrew Ng: “Most people today will never have access to a Princeton, Stanford, Cal Tech class.  But now, if you wake up tomorrow morning and you decide you want to take a Cal Tech class, you can — you can just sign up for one, and it’s free.”

Udacity is moving quickly towards a profit center.  For now the courses are free.  Business are paying for their services.

Udemy is already in full profit mode.  Students pay to learn.

edX will likely follow a business model similar to Coursera.

What are the educational possibilities? I will give a simple answer.  The better answers are long and complex.  First, for those who simply want to enhance their knowledge (i.e. me), these courses offer videos of the highest quality, readings by the most knowledgeable in the field, and quizzes and exams to measure progress.

Second, many courses offer certificates of completion.  These certificates require a more rigorous course of study and exams that are actually graded.

Third, The American Council on Education, an influential association of university presidents, is considering for-credit status for some Coursera courses.  More than 2,000 universities and colleges now accept ACE courses. Students would still have to go to a proxy exam and pay a fee (likely around $100), but it would be far cheaper than taking the course.

Fourth, universities and colleges are starting to license courses for use in conjunction with classroom learning.  Students watch the videos on their own time and come to class to discuss and practice what they learned online.  This simple idea is filled with hidden complexities too long to present here, but trust me it will require a great deal of experimentation.  It does hold (faint?) hope of mitigating student tuition costs.

What are the business possibilities?  First, and I put it first because it most intriguing, it can (and will) become a recruiting tool for larger organizations.  Organizations will contract with a MOOC for a certain type course to be added (or modified if it already exists).  It will be made known that those who complete the course and do well may be invited in for a job interview.

Second, there are several ways (again too many to discuss here) that MOOCs will be the new wave in in-house training.  It is like to change the paradigm of learning and will have significant impact on organizations like ASTD (American Society for Training and Development). From BusinessWeek: “Look at any economic study on the future of the American corporation and you’ll find one clear message: Companies need educated workers. The business model of low-cost, high-quality education offered by the MOOCs could well transform corporate training and turn the idea of lifelong learning into reality. Let the revolution begin.”

Third, MOOCs will generate revenue from content licensing, exams or job-referral services.  In the future they are likely to charge a “fee” for the certificate of completion. They will also generate some income from getting money each time Coursera students click through the site to buy recommended textbooks or any other products on Amazon.  The “any other products” is the key.  While online, whatever is purchased produces some revenue for the MOOC and the associated university.  As an example imagine buying a San Francisco 49er shirt and some of the money from the purchase of that shirt goes to Coursera and Duke.  Hmmm.  Smart!

Fourth, professors who are willing to make the effort will find immediate increased revenue in their “recommended, not required” books.  Eventually they will also be paid in a similar fashion for creating and delivering an online course (the effort being similar to writing a long article or book).

Fifth, participating universities and colleges will eventually make money from MOOCs.  This will be in direct income like licensing fees, exam fees, and likely a dozen other ways.  All university and colleges will also make money indirectly by using MOOCs in place of current faculty.  MOOC courses with (cheap) graduate assistants are likely on the horizon.

Who are the likely winners? First and foremost the winners will be for-profit MOOCs.  Their income will come more from organizations and less from students.

Second, I predict some professors will get rich.  They will achieve guru status, and that can lead to all forms of income from teaching, books and, oh yeah, consulting gigs and speaking fees.

Third, universities partnering with MOOCs will make money.  How much is still a big question.

Who are the likely losers? First, the most likely losers will be the very students that were the focus of creating MOOCs.  The “free” MOOCs will begin to nibble at the financial edges, affecting the poorest of the poor the most.  Exam fees and certification of completion fees and who know what else may just be too much for some.

Second, students at traditional universities, colleges and two-year institution who enroll in MOOC led classes will miss out on the interaction with a fully accredited teacher or professor.

Third, those (of us) who got into MOOCs for only the education may get lost in the shuffle.  After all, we generate very little income.

On balance? MOOCs are a terrific invention, a godsend to many, and a fantastic way to learn.  Let’s us just hope that the business developers don’t lose sight of this noble effort.  Don’t nickel and dime those who don’t have nickels and dimes. Let the profits be reasonable, but not so high as to kill the concept.

A word to the wise!  If you are interested strictly for the education, sign up now.  As business models develop you are very likely to see the word “Free” less frequently in the description. At least do this much: Check out the website Coursera and see what it offers you.  In less than 5 minutes you will know if it is for you (or not).

I shall present some interesting “stats” on MOOCs in my TGIF post two days hence.  Check it out.

Catch you later.

Bill Bradley

Bill Bradley (mostly) retired after 35 years in organizational consulting, training and management development. During those years he worked internally with seven organizations and trained and consulted externally with more than 90 large and small businesses, government agencies, hospitals and schools.