During the Dot-Com Bubble, Warren Buffett was chided for not investing in any of the hot new companies. He said he knew there were lots of great values among the new start-ups. He just didn’t know how to predict who the winners might be.
That’s the problem with high potential programs. When you hire a bunch of people out of college you know that a small number of them will become stars. The hard part is guessing which ones.
The NFL ought to get it right. Every year pro football teams spend carloads of money trying to identify the stars of the future. They’ve got scouts and tape to watch and evaluation camps. And they still get it wrong.
First round draft picks are supposed to be almost sure bets for stardom. But according to Cade Massey and Richard Thaler, two professors who’ve studied the NFL draft, less than a tenth of them will be selected for the Pro Bowl at some time during their first five years in the league.
In fact, Matthew Quirk, writing in the Atlantic says, “in any given season over his first five years, a first-round draft pick is almost as likely to not start a single game (8 percent) or fail out of the league (8 percent) as he is to go to the Pro Bowl.” In other words, with all the resources, experience, and evidence they have professional football teams do an awful job of picking winners early.
It’s tougher for you. Many of the people you select will not have much of a track record. I suggest looking for things important for success in business, but not so important in a structured environment, like an academic program.
Look for the ability to decide. Napoleon said that “nothing is more precious than the ability to decide.” Things haven’t changed much since his day.
Look for the ability to finish. Studies of Nobel Laureates show that the winners often aren’t among the smartest of their peers, but they finish what they start.
Look for the ability and passion for helping others succeed. We do most of our work in teams. People that help teams succeed are gold.
Picking long term winners is hard. The more you can do it based on actual, meaningful performance, the better.
